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From the "Minnesota Leadership Summit" in September to last week's "Balanced Budget Subcommittee," you would think state legislative leaders were discussing this year's budget woes. Just last May the state's two-year budget was left unresolved after Governor Pawlenty vetoed the DFL's $1 billion tax increase. And in June after the legislature adjourned, Gov. Pawlenty balanced the budget himself with a seldom used provision of state law called "unallotment." As the Minnesota weather starts to turn cold, legislators usually start thinking about returning to the Capitol, the next budget forecast, and what will be in store for them during the upcoming Session.
However, these budget talks under the Capitol dome aren't about this year's budget or even musing about the annual budget forecast due in early December. Rather the topic of the day was about the state's 2012-2013 budget. Never mind that we are only four months into the current 24-month budget, and forget the fact that we are little more than a month away from the official state budget forecast.
Last week's budget debate by the recently formed "Balanced Budget Subcommittee," focused on the state's next biennial budget which will be the subject matter for the 2011 legislature. Between now and the start of the 2011 legislative session, we have the 2010 Session and an election when all 201 legislative seats are on the ballot and a new Minnesota governor will be elected.
So, why all the drama about events that are more than a year away?
Simple, since Gov. Pawlenty spoiled the Democrats plan to hijack taxpayers in 2009; they are plotting new ways to nail Minnesota taxpayers in 2010. By hyping the projected shortfall for the 2012-2013 budget, they hope to gain support for a tax increase in 2010, a full year before the new Legislature and new Governor take office.
It is a new twist on the old Wimpy axiom, "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today." DFL leaders seem to prescribe to the theory that, "If we raise your taxes today, we won't have to raise them as much tomorrow."
As I have penned before, this is the same cast of players that failed to truly balance the state's budget in 2008. Then they came back in 2009 and failed once again to tackle true budget reform. Instead they used mostly one-time funds and shifts, and left town in May with yet another unbalanced budget.
In the last ten years, state spending has increased by over 50 percent, vastly out stripping inflation and population growth. To think for a moment that this group of ardent tax and spenders sitting around a table in a Capitol Committee room could take on real budget reform seems hard to imagine. Most of the members of the "Balanced Budget Subcommittee" have been in office for more than two decades, during which time there has been a three-fold increase in the state's budget.
This rapid budget growth through the nineties and into the early years of the 21st century was halted with a major budget shortfall in 2003, the first year as Governor for Tim Pawlenty. Now with yet another major budget shortfall looming, it seems that some legislators can only ponder about the "What If"...What if the income tax cuts of 1999 and 2000 hadn't happened? What if the numerous attempts by the Senate to raise the top income tax rate would have prevailed? What if Sen. Bakk's tax bill from last April to increase taxes for all working Minnesotans would have passed? I venture to say if those things had happened, that this increase in tax collection monies would have been spent and the projected shortfall might be even larger than it is today.
The focus of the "Balanced Budget Subcommittee" and all of the other legislators, who might not have been picked to serve on this Subcommittee, should be on the immediate goal of true budget reform. Don't put off tough decisions in hopes that the problem will resolve itself over time. Don't think you can just raise taxes and solve the state's budget shortfall. The current group of legislators has demonstrated that they are incapable of real budget reform. Consider that the Democrats have maintained control of the State Senate for almost forty years. In 2010 it's time to give a new group of legislators an opportunity to grapple with balancing our state's budget.
This column originally appeared in the St. Paul Legal Ledger Capitol Report.
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